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Market View

EURUSD is off the Friday high by begin of the week

Monday, July 2, 2012 3:49 AM GMT

Good Morning ,

- EURUSD is off the Friday high by begin of the week (range 1.26145-1.2681),
also AUDUSD is lower also after stronger than expected data (Tankan, China
PMIs, Australia PMI).

- Stocks: Nikkei +0.24 %, Hang Seng +2.19 %. Shanghai Composite +0.12 %,
Dow Jones +2.20 %, S+P500 +2.49 %

- Greece must implement reform goals 100%, the ECB Executive Board member said
in an interview with ARD TV.
* Repeats sees scope for reviewing "mix" of Greek reform measures, doesn't
see Greece getting more time, relief on reform objectives themselves
* Says EU summit doesn't make ESM more lax, doesn't open door to euro bonds
* Sees no conflict with ECB regulator role in possible banking union
* Not opposed to referendums on deeper European integration
* Says euro was "never in danger" during crisis

- The French government warned it will cut its economic growth forecasts for
this year and next, a move that could point to a need for greater austerity
than promised by Socialist President François Hollande. The government said
it would base amendments-essentially tax increases- to the 2012 budget on a
forecast that France's economy would expand by 0.4% this year, below the 0.5%
couched in Mr. Hollande's election program. Finance minister Pierre Moscovici
signaled an even sharper cut to the 2013 forecast of 1.7% that Mr. Hollande
had used in his program.

- Spain's Minister of Economy and Competitiveness Luis de Guindos said on
Sunday that he expected the recession to continue in Spain throughout the
second half of 2012. De Guindos added that this "negative growth" would be
"slightly higher" than the 0.3 percent reduction in Spain's GDP in the first
quarter this year.

- U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron said he's not opposed to a popular vote on
Britain's membership of the European Union and a plebiscite may be needed
to gain the support of Britons for staying in the political alliance.

- Japan Data Recap                                   Period         Survey           Actual            Prior
* Tankan Large Manufacturer Index              Q2                 -4               -1                 -4
* Tankan Non-Manufacturing                       Q2                  7                8                   5
* Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook         Q2                 -4                1                  -3
* Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outook            Q2                   6               6                   5
* Tankan Large All Indust. Capex                Q2               3.6 %             6.2 %           0.0 %

- Autralia Data Recap                              Period         Survey        Actual         Prior
* AIG Perf. of Manufacturing Index            June               -                 47.2        42.4
* TD Securities Inflation yoy                    June                -                1.6 %       1.8 %

- China Data Recap                 Period         Survey       Actual      Prior
* Manufacturing PMI              June             49.9            50.2        50.4
* HSBC Manufacturing PMI      June               -              48.2        48.4

- The Swiss central bank's policy of enforcing its currency ceiling is
appropriate to prevent deflation, the bank's president said. "We are
enforcing the minimum exchange rate with all determination because it is the
right monetary policy," SNB's Jordan told SonntagsBlik. The Swiss National
Bank has to do that "to prevent a deflationary development."

- IMM Positions: EUR -160k vs -141k, JPY 4k vs 15k, GBP -1k vs -17k, CHF -24k vs
-7k, CAD 9k vs 8k, AUD -2k vs -3k, NZD 1k vs -2k

- 1600 US ISM Manufacturing June
- 1600 US Construction Spending May
- 1915 Fed Williams
- 0945 Italy PMI Manufacturing June
- 0950 France PMI Manufacturing June
- 0955 Germany PMI Manufacturing June
- 1000 Eurozone PMI Manufacturing June
- 1100 Eurozone Unemployment Rate May
- 0925 ECB Asmusen
- 1100 ECB Nowotny
- 1030 UK PMI Manufacturing June
- 0100 Bank of England Annual Report
- 0915 Switzerland Retail Sales May
- 0930 Switzerland PMI Manufacturing June
- 0830 Sweden PMI June
- 0900 Norway PMI June
- 1000 Credit Growth Indicator May


Have a good start !

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