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Market View

Market Recap

Friday, April 12, 2019 10:19 AM GMT

Yesterday’s price action was insignificant during the European session. Markets had already priced in the dovish tone of ECB since March, and the only update we had from Wednesday’s press conference has been that we will get details for the TLTRO III program within the July’s meeting. Markets were also digesting the new downward revision of the global oil demand growth, announced by OPEC.

The sentiment changed during the American session, possibly due to the reading of FOMC minutes of meeting and a potential rate cut within 2019. Note that the possibility of a rate cut is currently priced very low (13.7% probability on the June’s meeting, 28.9% probability on September’s meeting, 30% probability on October’s meeting, 38% probability on December’s meeting), so the market move during the American session, could be filed as ungrounded fear.

Today, a probable moving market announcement could be the Chinese Trade surplus that has dropped to $4.1bn from previous double-digit levels.

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