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Market View

A potential Setup for AUDUSD

Tuesday, June 11, 2019 3:00 PM GMT

As the USDCNY has already reacted to the 6.96 level, a potential bullish scenario is formed at the correlated AUDUSD pairt.

The pair is about to test the 0.50 Fibonacci level from the middle of May uptrend, as well as the 20 Day moving average level.

AUDUSD Daily Chart

 

The setup is also visible at the bellow 4H chart.

 USDCAD 4Hour Chart

 

The bullish scenario should be considered busted if the pair reaches the 0.6910 level.

Strengths:

  • RBA cut rates to boost the labor market and household consumption. Markets approved the monetary accommodating decision and AUD strengthened. The RBA is confident on a 2H19 rebound.
  • Upcoming positive macro readings from China.
  • Newly elected government.
  • improving macro readings: GDP, current account, M1, service PMI, Manufacturing PMI, AIG manufacturing index, AIG services index, construction work done (but is still in a negative territory), household consumption, consumer's sentiment, wage price index

 

Weaknesses:

  • the manufacturing PMI of China dropped below the 50 threshold again.
  • Housing market and Prices not rising, credit not increasing
  • deteriorating macro readings: inflation gauge, unemployment, job advertisements, inflation expectations, retail sales, trade balance, home loans, private sector credit, home sales, building approvals,  AIG construction index, company operating profits, decreasing capital expenditure, private capital expenditure, business confidence

 

Watch / New Releases:

  • consumer sentiment, inflation expectations, unemployment
  • next monetary meeting of the RBA on July 2

 

Disclaimer

The views expressed do not constitute investment or any other advice /recommendation /suggestion and are subject to change.Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader.Opinions expressed in the report do not represent the opinion of Zulutrade and do not constitute an offer or invitation to anyone to invest or trade.

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