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Market View

GBPUSD is testing 61.8% Fibo retracement

Friday, May 17, 2019 11:34 AM GMT

A potential make or break reversal is happening at the GBPUSD pair.

Daily chart

The pair is currently testing:

  • the Fibo 61.8 level, defined from the December’s lows and the March’s high.
  • the Ferbruary low
  • the daily lower Bollinger Band


Hourly chart

At the 1hour chart a falling wedge pattern is getting shape.

The macroeconomic picture remains unchanged:


  • Upward revision of GDP growth from the BOE (1.2% February’s expectation, 1.5% May’s expectation) coupled with Governor Carney’s comment that “it will require more, and more frequent interest rate increases, than the market currently expects”. His comment is valid, provided that there is a bounce in investments and hiring
  • Unemployment is expected to further fall to 3.5% by 2022.
  • improving macro releases: GDP, retail sales, unemployment, industrial production, construction PMI, Service PMI, wages, trade balance, increasing public sector net borrowing, high street lending, lending to individuals, home prices



  • polls for the EU elections that will take place on May 26 are presenting the Nigel Farage's Brexit party in the first place. 
  • property values predicted to fall by 1,25% within 2019, according to the BOE
  • deteriorating macro releases: average earnings, consumer's confidence, current account, M4, Business Investments, Manufacturing PMI, construction output, manufacturing production, industrial order expectations


Monetary Meeting:

  • Next Monetary Meeting of the Bank of England is scheduled on 20 June 2019.



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