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Market Recap – Duped by DUP?

Friday, October 18, 2019 10:33 AM GMT

Saved by the sense of responsibility or rejected by DUP and hard Brexit-ers? On Saturday, the day that Boris Johnson’s deadline to ask for a new Brexit extension expires, we will find out the vote of the UK Parliament.

At betting sites, Boris Johnson deal ratified pays 1.7x, rejection pays 2.0x. A no-deal Brexit is now considered unlike. Betting sites give  5.00x to the possibility of a hard Brexit, and 1.14x for the rest of possible outcomes (withdrawal agreement being ratified, extension, total revoke of Article 50). On the other hand, the crowd forecast at Good Judgment, gives only a 20% probability of UK leaving on October 31.

Note that May’s plan had been rejected by the same MPs 3 times (202-432, 242-391, 286-344) and that MPs want a deal or obligatory extension of the October 31 deadline with a 328-301 margin.

Other than that, US tariffs on EU products (10% rate on Jetliners products and 25% on food products) start being imposed today.

As political uncertainties are destined to be resolved, market participants will start focusing on economic fundamentals.

Macro releases: The Chinese macro releases  (industrial production and retail sales) have strangely moved higher, while the Chinese GDP growth is falling. No other significant announcement is included in today’s economic agenda.

Disclaimer

The views expressed do not constitute investment or any other advice /recommendation /suggestion and are subject to change. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Opinions expressed in the report do not represent the opinion of ZuluTrade Social Trading Platform and do not constitute an offer or invitation to anyone to invest or trade.

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