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Markets discount Biden's victory

Thursday, November 5, 2020 4:02 PM GMT

The US presidential election continues to keep the United State - and the world - on its toes, with results continuing to keep Democrat Biden and Republican Trump neck and neck. This defies initial expectations of a clear victory for Biden, making it clear that America still remains a deeply polarized nation.

Results are down to the wire, with Biden only 6 states shy of reaching the 270 threshold, making him the 46th President of the United States. Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania are the last pending and questionable states, yet it is anticipated all votes will be counted in these states by the end of today. At the time of writing, Trump has narrowed the gap in Arizona, however, the Associated Press has not yet changed its projection in favor of Biden. 

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On major EU-UK news, BoE kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.1%, as expected, while they have raised their Quantitative Easing by £150billion to £875bn. Governor Andrew Bailey announced the central bank is willing to increase its economic stimulus if the outlook on inflation dilutes.  The European Commission has cut its GDP forecast as the economy is unlikely to reach pre-virus levels before 2023. The new projected number is 4.2% for 2021as compared to 6.1%.  

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Reviewing the technicals, SP500 is grinding higher and is ready to ready a major resistance zone near to 3510-3550 where there is a confluence of two trendlines, therefore, bulls may decide to take some of their profits out of the table. Likewise, NAS100 is about to hit a trendline but still is not considered to be overbought.     

SP500 240min

NAS100 daily

Reviewing the gold, it's following the equities short-term momentum and is violating one trendline after another to the upside. However, bulls should monitor 61.8% Fibonacci level for potential weakness.

XAUUSD 240min

Heading to the USoil, the commodity rebounds nicely and looks like it validates 61.8%. If this is valid, then we may expect prices near to 40. 

USoil 240min

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