Market Recap – OPEC meeting in Vienna

Last week Bloomberg published an article on experts’ expectations for the OPEC+ meeting that begins today in Vienna. 20 out of 35 were expecting an extension of the current production cap, 8 out of 35 were expecting a longer extension (the Oman’s oil Minister will suggest an extension up until December 2020) and only 1 out of 35 was expecting an additional -300K bpd production cut. Financial markets participants and the OPEC’s outlook expect oil surplus during 1H20 and oil shortage during 2H20.

The thing is that Saudi Arabia carries the burden of the currently production cap agreement. Iraq and Nigeria do not comply, and Russia does not comply for the last 8 months in a row (Russia pumps 11.2Mbpd, 54Kbpd more than agreed. Brent, WTI, CAD and NOK are already strengthening.

Yesterday, the Bank of Canada left its monetary policy unchanged. Today, the Central Bank of India is expected to cut interest rates to boost Indian economy.

Macro releases: The German Factory orders decreased. Today’s economic calendar includes the European retail sales, the revised European GDPq/q, and the US Factory Orders m/m.


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