The Saturday’s leadership elections of the Social-Democrats party, found Norbert Walter-Borjans and Saskia Esken winning. Analysts are pointing to the rising possibility of the grand (SPD-CDU) coalition ending. On the other hand, the result could be interpreted as a last chance for setting an aggressive and much needed fiscal expansion policy.
The week ahead:
- The UN climate conference begins today in Madrid
- The NATO summit begins on Tuesday. Marcron has said that EU should make sure to dictate it’s own fate
- In the default scenario that President Trump neither signs nor veto-es, the US bill on Hong Kong becomes a law on Tuesday. Counter measures have been threatened by China.
- OPEC+ meeting will take place in Vienna, starting on Thursday. Analysts do not expect an additional production cap. They expect an extension of the present production cap up until June 2020. The Saudis feel frustrated due to the consequential no compliance of Iraq, Nigeria and Russia. Russia pumps 54K bpd more than agreed for the last 8 months in a row.
- Monetary meeting of the RBA (Australia) on Tuesday and BOC (Canada) on Wednesday.
The month ahead:
- IMO 2020 regulations will take effect (?) starting on January. Long positions on oil refiners should be considered
- The Siberia pipeline, signed in 2014, starts delivering energy from Russia to China. A ceremony that will be attended by President Putin and President Xi will take place today
- The six months deadline for the UK to leave the Chagos Islands, their last foothold in the Indian Ocean, ends.
- Kim Jong Un (S. Korea) has set an end of year deadline towards the USA.
Macro releases: The Chinese Manufacturing PMI reading was unexpectedly above the 50 threshold. On the other hand the Australian building approvals were way lower than expected (-8.1% m/m) Today’s economic calendar includes the French, German and EU manufacturing PMI final revision, the US manufacturing PMI and Christine Lagarde addressing the EU parliament. An interesting Q&A session is anticipated by financial markets participants.
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